Why experimenters are luckier...

I really enjoyed the Harvard Business Review article Make Luck Work in Your Favor, which talked about three types of entrepreneur luck:

1. Circumstantial Luck
2. Constitutional Luck
3. Ignorance, or Dumb Luck

Here's a passage I particularly liked, which is a fine description of the typical Think, Try, Learn experimenter:

They read new things, try new experiences and are open-minded to a variety of relationships because they are curious. All of these things increase the probability for circumstantial luck.

The topic reminds me of the ideas in How to Attract Good Luck, including the importance of being around new people. Carr claims "a high proportion of lucky chances comes to us through strangers or people we know only slightly."

What's your take on luck? Any tips to share?

Look for me at the Quantified Self!

In the surprise and delight [1] category I am absoutely thrilled to announce that I've been asked to be regular contributor to The Quantified Self, the data-driven life blog that Wired luminaries Gary Wolf and Kevin Kelly run. Out-standing! My first post is Is there a data-driven personality? A big thanks to Alexandra Carmichael for the invitation.

You might want to check out their archives, which include things like whether eating butter can make you smarter, or A Visual Guide to Cognitive Bias.

[1] The 2x2 cell I'm trying to figure out is what Expected + Delightful would be. Ideas? The others are straightforward - "Pink Slip" and "Gum Surgery", for example?

Past experiments you didn't know about? You bet!

I've been experimenting for a few years, but I didn't know it. Then again, I think I can forgive myself - it was before "Think, Try, Learn" popped out. Just for fun I thought I'd go back and find a few experiments (in hindsight) that I blogged about in the past.

• Use Gmail's "star" to highlight your good news (A keeper!)
• Report on a little experiment: Daily random entries from my personal log
• On the goal of meeting three new people a week - A ten week retrospective
• Notes on using a digital voice recorder for taking reading notes
• A daily planning experiment: two weeks of accountable rigorous action (This eventually turned into my "Where the !@#% did my day go?" ebook.)
• Networking surprises - Some recent unexpected (but successful) outcomes
• Testing the classics: A Time Management Experiment: Time Blocking
• Playing with LinkedIn's Answers feature - Time, cutting costs, and the meaning of life (part 1/2)
• And of course my biggest one - Building a Personal Productivity practice from thin air

What about you? What do you have going on now that might qualify as an experiment. Something new, something scary, or maybe something where you really don't have a good model with which to predict?

The Experiment-Driven Life Universe v0.1: What do you think?

Following up on my last post (Towards a calculus of happiness) I want to share a condensed version that I think is converging on something tasty. Again, this is the TTL/Matt's view of the world. I'm not sure if what I'm doing is making sense to you, but here goes!

nature of world

• the world is constantly changing
• our knowledge is always incomplete
• we are limited in what we can control

implications

• the world is unpredictable (META!)
• perfection is impossible (META?)
• there is no true stability
• there is no true safety
• success is never guaranteed
• mistakes are natural
• things never work out like we expect
• no choice/decision can be perfect

metaphysical truths

• attachment -> suffering
• being present/mindful/in the moment -> happiness
• the only way to improve is to change something (thinking, acting)
• reality != desire (what is vs what ought to be)
• observation -> awareness -> change

human nature

• we are born curious :-)
• we are all different
• we like feeling light (not too serious)
• we feel good around supporting people
• we feel good around beauty
• we are happier when we feel safe/unafraid
• change is scary
• we are prone to feeling certain, have all answers, ...

Towards a calculus of happiness

As I write my Think, Try, Learn book I'm enjoying applying the TTL principles to the writing itself. As part of the meta experiment in Edison, my current experiment is try expressing the ideas in terms of reasoning from first principles. What I want to emerge are categories of ideas like: Mindset, Worldview, Framework, Skills, Principles, Practices, Values, and Artifacts.

I have two very different inspirations for this approach: The Extreme Programming Pocket Guide and Wabi-Sabi: for Artists, Designers, Poets & Philosophers. (Check out the Wikipedia articles Extreme Programming and Wabi-sabi.) Koren's Wabi-Sabi book in particular has a one-pager that's a tight and clear mind blower (see "The Wabi-Sabi Universe" below).

I'd like your advice on the first principles on which I could create a logically consistent explanation of how an experiment-driven life can make us happier. Here I'm trying to start with what Koren calls the Metaphysical Basis - the underlying natural laws of my TTL universe. I have quite a few more items than he has, and these ideas are semi-formed, but here's my stab as of today. I've picked ones that resonate for me and my logical/scientific mind, but I'd love to hear your suggestions for facts I'm missing.

• The world is constantly changing.
• Our knowledge is always incomplete.
• We are limited in what we can control.
• Attachment leads to suffering.
• We like feeling light (not too serious).
• We feel good around supporting people.
• Being present/mindful/in the moment -> happiness.
• We feel good around beauty.
• We are all different.

At a higher level:

• The only way to improve is to change something.
• We are born curious.
• Change is scary.

What do you think?

The Wabi-Sabi Universe

"Wabi-sabi can be called a 'comprehensive' aesthetic system. Its world view, or universe, is self referential. It provides an integrated approach to the ultimate nature of existence (metaphysics), sacred knowledge (spirituality), emotional well-being (state of mind), behaviour (morality), and the look and feel of things (materiality). The more systematic and clearly defined the components of an aesthetic system are - the more conceptual handles, the more ways it refers back to fundamentals - the more useful it is."

Metaphysical Basis

• Things are either devolving toward, or evolving from, nothingness

Spiritual Values

• Truth comes from the observation of nature
• "Greatness" exists in inconspicuous and overlooked details
• Beauty can be coaxed out of ugliness

State of Mind

• Acceptance of the inevitable
• Appreciation of the cosmic order

Moral Precepts

• Get rid of all that is unnecessary
• Focus on the intrinsic and ignore material hierarchy

Material Qualities

• The suggestion of natural process
• Irregular
• Intimate
• Unpretentious
• Earthy
• Murky
• Simple